The Weekly Forecast of Forex | First Week of 2020 | Dec 30 - Jan 3, 2020

The Weekly Forecast of Forex | First Week of 2020 | Dec 30 - Jan 3, 2020

Weekly Forex Forecast

The Frist Week of 2020          

Hi everyone welcome to Faisal FX Pro weekly Forex forecast my name is Shah Faisal with daily price action and in today's forecast, we're gonna talk about the EURUSD the GBPUSD the Australian dollar the US dollar as well as the New Zealand dollar versus the Canadian dollar and we're gonna wrap things up with gold or XAUUSD you USD I'll show you some of the patterns I'm watching and we'll discuss what 2020 could bring for some of these currency pairs.
Forecast OF EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDCAD, XAUUSD (December 30 - January 3, 2020)


The EURUSD I wrote about this one on Friday and we were mainly looking at the fact that the pair is now retesting that one 1170 area so notice back here the euro USD formed what was basically a double top where it came off of that one 1170 area and it then closed below this one 1070 region which was the low of this double top right here alright so once they closed below that it then traveled what was essentially the height of the double top so notice how this distance right here so this distance was essentially the same as this distance right here now the 1 1070 area is still significant even though it became pretty choppy right through this region so 110 70 is what attracted buyers recently and also triggered this latest rally now as of Friday's close 1 1170 is still serving as resistance in my opinion that means that we could see some weakness early this week and it's also going to take a daily close above that area in order to expose the next key level however I wouldn't want to trade that right now because we do have this descending channel top that extends from the 2019 high right above that 111 70 level so this pattern is the one that we talked about way back here when the eur/usd was approaching that 109 support area and it's also what triggered that October breakout back here that led to a 200 pip rally so as of right now it is going to take completely closed above 111 70 however I would like to see a close above this descending channel top up around 112 before I decide to buy the euro so if we do see a daily clothes above this 112 area that could expose the one 1,300 region or 112 82 113 hundred so notice how this is where the euro USD topped out back here so one 1,300 would be on my radar as the next key level but if we see a close above that 112 level we could also even see a move all the way up here to this ascending channel top because notice what's happened since the pair came into this channel so this close right back here brought us into this channel and we then had this test on the top the pair moved lower started to form the bottom came off of that bottom retest at the top moved lower to test the bottom so as of right now we are still coming off of this bottom so a close above this 112 level could expose one 1,300 however it could even expose that channel top somewhere up in this region so that's something I'm keeping an eye on now understand too that we could see either a pullback here consolidation or we could even see the euro move all the way back here to 110 70 and a close below that level could expose 109 90 so if we do see a close below this ascending channel bottom right down here that in my opinion would signal weakness and also reexpose this 109 90 support area so those are the two scenarios I'm watching out for right now however I do think the euro USD is going to continue to be tough to trade as long as it is caught in this sideways range.

The British Pound versus the US dollar or GBP/USD and this pair made a big recovery last week after it closed below that 129 80 levels so notice how 129 80 served as this range top back here just before the pair broke out so this breakout I talked about on the blog and it came following this massive rally that we had so we had this rally consolidation and then we had a continuation of that rally so this 129 80 was a key level we were keeping an eye on and notice how this candle right here closed below it, however, two days later
 We got a close back above that level and Friday confirmed that with a significant rally as for where we go from here it's really going to come down to whether or not we see a continuation of Friday's strength into that 130 170 level now it is going to take a daily close above that in order to reexpose some of those 2019 highs up around 133 40 now of course this high was much higher than 133 40 however this is the key level we were talking about several weeks ago because notice how this is a range top that's been in place now for quite some time furthermore if I draw an ascending channel you'll notice that 133 40 does line up with this ascending channel top so this region right through here around 130 340 will be key on the way up however we do need to see a close above 131 70 in order to reexpose that 130 340 region alternatively if we see the pound crash back down to 129 80 and close below it that could expose this channel bottom somewhere just above that 127 70 support area now I will say that anyone looking to buy the pound needs to be a little careful simply because of the aggressiveness of this recent pullback so if I'm looking to buy a market this type of pullback is not what I want to see I want to see something that's more gradual like we saw back here where the pair just turned sideways and then broke out and then moved higher so this pullback right here was incredibly aggressive and while the pound could continue higher break above 130 170 and exposed 133 40 this aggressive sell-off could also trigger another leg lower so we could see a move up here into 130 170 or otay ssin lower and then a move back here into channel support so that's some time keeping an island as well and it's going to come down to what kind of price action we get right around 130 170 this week.

 next up we have the Australian dollar versus the US dollar or aud/usd and this pair recently broke out from a long term descending channel so this is something I've talked about now several times and we also looked at it back here when the pair was trading within this consolidation it then broke down and retested that channel bottom now notice how these candles did move below that channel bottom but the pair never did close below it so since that time we've seen a breakout right through here of this descending channel now this could represent at least a short-term uptrend so as of right now we have these higher lows and we also now have these higher highs so right now I am interested in buying the Australian dollar however I don't want to do so right now simply because the pair has moved higher for several days and it's also getting quite a bit overextended so if we notice where the 10 and 20 mas are right back here this represents the mean or average price on the daily timeframe so what this tells me is that we could see a rotation lower or at least some consolidation before we start to see another leg higher now that doesn't have to happen right at Friday's close we could see a move quite a bit higher before we see that consolidation but I do want to see some type of consolidation or a pullback before I look to buy the Australian dollar now if we do see the pair wrote a lower one level I'm keeping an eye on is 69 30 so this level right here was the top back here and it was also resistance on this candle as well as these two candles right through here so if we do see a pull back over the next few days or weeks in to 69 30 that could present a buying opportunity now on the way up I am keeping an eye on this 70 15 region it's hard to see from the daily timeframe however if we go to the weekly notice how this 70 15 served as support back here it then did so on this candle and so this one right here so it became a little bit choppy through this area but I do think 7015 based on these weekly lows could be significant notice to how just recently we had a bullish pin bar in the weekly timeframe following this breakout from the channel so this was the breakout right here and we then got a bullish candle right here this is a perfectly formed bullish candle on the weekly timeframe so this pin bar is what triggered this recent rally but again notice how overextended we're starting to get with Friday's close being well above those 10 and 20 mas so I would like to see some consolidation these 10 and 20 EMA start to come up price react to that area and then start to move higher so right now I am interested in buying the Australian dollar but I don't want to do so until we have some type of pullback or at least some consolidation.

The New Zealand dollar versus the Canadian dollar or NZ CAD ad is similar to the Australian dollar and that we just had a breakout from a dissenting Channel so notice how this channel is also well defined and that it started up here we have this test right here and also this one right before that breakout the lower level is defined by these lows right here this one and also this one so this descending channel represented a downtrend and this breakout right here was the start of this short term uptrend so as of right now just like the Australian dollar I am interested in buying the New Zealand dollar versus the CAD however right now we just broke above this 87 30/40 region so this high right here that formed a pin bar that's where the pair topped out before so we still have this nice uptrend that's respecting these 10 20 mas and we also broke above that 87 30/40 level last week so what I would like to see is a rotation into this area or at least some sideways consolidation before we start to see that next push higher the next key resistance level I'm watching is going to be 88 90 based on these two highs back here and also these lows so 87 30/40 is going to be support and 88 90 up here is going to be the next key resistance I keep an eye on however if we do see the pair rotate lower and then close back below this 87 30/40 region alright so if we see a close below that that could also act as a sell signal and then reexpose this 8600 region all right so I'm looking for a rotation into 87 30/40 some type of buy signal from there to a signal that we are going to push higher perhaps into 88 90 however if we see a close below 87 30 that would signal to me weakness and also reexpose 8600 support last but not least.

 We have Gold or XAUUSD and this has played out perfectly for us so I talked about this falling wedge for several weeks and after this rally back here so we had this rally and we then had this consolidation that formed a fallen wedge this to me represented a continuation pattern and I talked about this last weekend as well as several times before that so essentially what we were waiting for was a close above this confluence of resistance right around 1480 so notice how 1480 back here served as support and it then became resistance on these highs now 1480 was also the intersection of this wedge table so this was a key area to break and notice how this candle last week closed above it and gold took off to the upside and just about retested that 1515 resistance area in fact I would say that that is a retest of that region based on several highs back through here so where do we go from here well it's all gonna come down to what happens at 15:15 if we do see it close a daily close above this area so this level right here at 1515 a daily close above this would mean that fifteen fifteen should start to serve as support and we could then see a push higher perhaps even up into these 2019 highs around 1550 however keep in mind that the 10 and 20 EMA is right down here are quite a bit lower than where Friday closed so that tells me that we could see some consolidation either right below 15 15 or we could even see a pull back now two levels I'm going to keep an eye on are going to be this 1500 maybe 1505 area and also this 1490 level down here so essentially if we see a pullback in to 1500 maybe 1505 this level right through here and we see some type of bullet price action like a pin bar okay that could signal the next leg higher and a retest of 1515 and could even produce a break out of that level so notice how 1505 did serve as resistance back here we have several closing prices as well as opening prices it also served as resistance here and then served as support on these two candles now 1490 is another one so if we see a move below this 1500 area and a pullback all the way here to 1490 this level is also significant based on several hot several lows back here and we also have some highs through this region as well as these two more recent highs now of course there's always the chance that we see a pullback all the way back into 1480 since we didn't really see that retest back here but it's all going to come down to price action so look for bullish price action at 1505 1490 and perhaps 1480 if we do see a pullback that far so really any type of pin bar or engulfing candle at any one of these levels could be a signal of that next leg higher but all-in-all I do think that the price action here so just between this rally that we saw back here this consolidation and the recent breakout I do think gold could stay constructive and even though we may see a pullback into either 1490 or 1500 I do think that this is going to stay constructive and perhaps retest those 2019 highs up around 1550 so that's what I would watch for in 2020 just keep in mind that we could see a pullback which would be healthy considering this recent rally that we saw last week.

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